Did the “Khomeinist Revolution” task its country with a mission beyond its capacities when it decided on the policy of expelling the “Great Satan” from the Middle East? Is it now paying the price for provoking the American heavyweight who, over past decades, has absorbed blows from the factions in Iran’s orbit? And is there something it can still learn, before it is too late, from the situation in Cuba, despite the differences in geography, scale, and resources?
That island is far away, but its story offers a wealth of insights. A few days ago, Havana airport received a strange and awkward visitor, John Ratcliffe, the current Director of the American Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). He arrived with a message from a heavyweight boxer named Donald Trump: The message was clear: if you want help, you must change. Cuba must stop allowing Fidel Castro to govern the country from his grave. It must stop reading his commandments. It must distance itself from America’s enemies and cease to be a base for Russian and Chinese espionage activities.
Castro’s heirs were not pleased with this scene. It goes against the legacy of the man who nearly pulled the nuclear trigger during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Stubborn denial is no longer possible, however. Sometimes, numbers shatter dreams. The rebellious island is sinking into darkness. Fuel no longer arrives from Russia, Mexico, or the country of a prisoner named Maduro who once was both a “comrade” and a president. Public services have deteriorated catastrophically, tourists have disappeared from Cuba’s streets, and hotels have closed. Trump has tightened the blockade, and yesterday’s friends no longer wish to provoke the man constantly brandishing the sword of sanctions. Ratcliffe met Cuba’s interior minister and its intelligence chief, as well as a security official. The latter is the grandson of former president Raúl Castro, Fidel’s brother who is now in his mid-nineties. The message also contained a reference to Venezuela, and the hint was enough.
Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel, who is also secretary-general of the ruling Communist Party, faces a daunting task. The darkness has angered citizens. For the first time, demonstrations were organized and political slogans were chanted. The president resists. He insists that “surrender is not a solution” but has no alternative. Trump dreams of a victory in Cuba following the victory in Venezuela. His Secretary of State Rubio, who is of Cuban origin, has scores to settle with the guardians of Cuba’s revolution. Washington said it is prepared to offer Cuba $100 million in humanitarian aid. The Trump administration is not a charitable organization, however, and it is demanding that Cuba help itself to receive help. In other words, it demands that Cuba change.
Iran and Cuba are not the same. It is a large country in a sensitive region. It has a wealth of resources that could make it a prosperous nation capable of playing a regional role if its discourse approximated that of international norms and the principles of good neighborliness.
Revolutions commit themselves to grand dreams. But time passes harsh judgment when numbers fail to protect those dreams. Dreams become burdens when they collide with the realities of the balance of power: when the currency deteriorates, inflation rises, unemployment surges, and isolation looms. When numbers flash red, the country concerned must turn inward. The Soviet Union’s conquests did not protect it from this bleak fate. Salvation comes from within: from reconciling with the figures and accepting their lessons, from focusing on the people and their standard of living, from keeping with the times and seeking progress to ensure stability and prosperity. Nuclear enrichment does not feed the hungry. Maintaining positions on the maps of others does not save the imperial center if it ignores the numbers.
Let us leave distant Cuba for a moment. Lessons can be drawn from the history of the Middle East. Saddam Hussein assigned Iraq a mission beyond its capabilities. His forces invaded Kuwait, and they then withdrew to a sanctioned country to live under the rubble, and then what happened, happened. Muammar Gaddafi tasked his country with a mission beyond its capacities. He sent explosive devices, blew up airplanes, and provoked the American heavyweight. Again, what happened, happened. The illusion of costly missions is not exclusive to states; factions can suffer these symptoms. Yahya Sinwar tasked Gaza with a mission beyond its abilities. It has been turned to rubble, and funerals have become a daily part of life after Israel carried out the most horrific destruction seen anywhere in the world since the Second World War. Israel’s systematic assassination of villages in southern Lebanon attests to the fact that Hezbollah assigned Lebanon a mission beyond its capacities. Resisting occupation is a legitimate right, but becoming entangled in a regional project beyond the country’s means is another matter entirely. The same can be said of certain armed Iraqi factions.
American policy is not innocent. The history of the US is stained with mistakes and sins. Nonetheless, the duty of governments is to safeguard their countries and the prosperity of their economies. Their duty is to avoid suicidal policies. The peoples of the region have a real interest in avoiding a resumption of the conflict. The threats Trump has made since returning from Beijing ring the alarm. The battle is unequal. The weapon of the strait is important, but it is becoming a burden on Iran. The continuation of the maritime blockade threatens to exhaust its economy, its oil wells, and its currency. A new round of confrontation with the American boxer must be avoided. Iran must reflect on the experiences of others- from the darkness in Castro’s country to the legacies of Saddam, Gaddafi, and others.
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