Why does Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to China come a few days after the departure of Donald Trump? It is difficult to provide a fully satisfactory answer. Without getting into historical conspiracy theories, however, it would be reasonable to assume that the man in the Kremlin is perhaps troubled by the prospect of Uncle Sam driving a wedge into Sino-Russian relations, which would pose grave threats at the present moment.
In a statement published on its website, the Russian Foreign Ministry said that the visit come at the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping to mark the 25th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation between the two countries. The Kremlin further stresses that the visit is an opportunity for the two presidents to deepen their strategic partnership and cooperation.
That is certainly possible in theory. Nonetheless, the question on everyone’s lips remains whether Xi, during the 48 hours of the visit, will play a decisive mediating role between Moscow and Kyiv and facilitate efforts to end the war that began four years ago.
No answer to this question can be given without a realistic understanding of the nature and strength of relations between Beijing and Moscow, and without determining whether they are ideological strategic allies or merely partners pursuing mutual interests, especially their shared desire to contain American power in particular and challenge Western dominance more generally.
To begin with, China and Russia are not bound by formal alliance treaties, nor are they committed to defending one another. Still, their partnership is a particularly significant concern in Washington, especially after Xi declared in 2022 that his partnership with Putin had “no limits.” Xi has called Putin his “best friend and colleague,” while Putin referred to Xi as a “dear friend,” praising the Belt and Road Initiative and describing it as an attempt to achieve “a more just and multipolar world order.”
Although Russia and China tend to support one another, or at least refrain from opposing one another, in the United Nations Security Council on important issues, deep civilizational barriers separate the Russians and the Chinese. As we have repeatedly noted, they seem philosophically and socially uneasy with one another. Consequently, a climate of mistrust prevails among many officials, business leaders, and ordinary citizens on both sides, with historical grievances and future racial anxieties playing a significant role in this regard.
It is striking that while Xi and Putin enjoy cordial relations, the situation among previous leaders was quite different, with discord outweighing harmony.
The Russian-Ukrainian war has also placed China in an awkward position. Although Beijing has not publicly provided military support for Moscow’s war effort, NATO continues to accuse Beijing of complicity in Russia’s military campaign. Xi’s statements during his March 2023 visit to Moscow did little to dispel such accusations, even after he strongly warned against the possibility of the Russians resorting to nuclear weapons.
On another level, Sino-Russian military cooperation appears constrained by ongoing structural issues. One such constraint is Russia’s concerns around Chinese theft of intellectual property from Russian firms, fears rooted in repeated past cases in which China reverse-engineered Russian technology.
In the geopolitical competition between the two great Asian neighbors, Russia has devoted fewer military resources to its Far Eastern borders, achieving short-term security gains. In the long run, however, this reduction may be offset by expanding Chinese economic and political influence in areas Moscow has long regarded as its sphere of influence, particularly in Central Asia and the Caucasus. Moreover, China is unhappy with Russia’s close ties to India and Moscow’s transfer of weapons to New Delhi.
Returning to the primary purpose of the visit and the question of whether Putin seeks to preempt Chinese-American rapprochement, one could say that every square inch of confidence between Beijing and Washington, and every step toward easing tensions, could be seen by Russia as coming at the expense of its relationship with China.
At this point, it must be said that Putin’s ambitions depend on consolidating Russia’s status as a great power, with Moscow remaining a strategic asset to both Beijing and perhaps Washington as well.
In any case, Putin still holds valuable cards in major global issues: the war in Ukraine, Iran, energy security, and the future of the international order. Despite this, it is not inconceivable that he fears waking up one day to find China leaning toward Washington out of pragmatism, especially in the absence of any ideological bond with Moscow. For that reason, we must follow the visit and its eventual outcomes.
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