Major historical turning points constitute tremendous opportunities, despite how they may be misunderstood if we fail to read the broader context and the context behind the chaos of daily events. There is no doubt that this unprecedented crisis in the history of the Middle East, between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran and its proxies on the other, is one of those historical junctures that could present the moderate states, foremost among them Saudi Arabia, a historic opportunity. This is especially true given that Riyadh, by virtue of its long-established traditions, has dealt with crises wisely and prudently.
Today, it is reaping the rewards of its long-term investment in infrastructure and diversification. An additional factor cannot be overlooked: Vision 2030, which was launched under Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud and the proactive involvement of Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Crown Prince and Prime Minister, setting comprehensive and radical reform in motion. It is a grave mistake to reduce these reforms to their economic dimension; at their core, they represented a reconceptualization of national sovereignty in all its dimensions.
For decades, Gulf security relied on international partnerships, and this is a longstanding pattern in the region’s history. For example, in 1979 the United States stood by as its closest regional ally in Iran collapsed. Likewise, it would have remained passive in Bahrain and Egypt during the so-called “Arab Spring,” if not for Saudi Arabia’s distinctive approach to the situation and its support of stability in all the countries hit with the winds of this “spring.” The negative response to the Abqaiq attack was also a major turning point that led to a reassessment. In truth, perhaps the only exception was the liberation of Kuwait in 1991. Otherwise, with every difficult challenge in the region’s history, great powers pursued their own strategic interests, as is their right.
Addressing this reality was at the forefront of Saudi Arabia’s post-Vision transformation. Over the past decade, the Kingdom launched an exceptional vision that cannot be confined to economic diversification alone. One could say that it was a decisive and strategic declaration of a project centered on investment within Saudi Arabia itself: its land, its future, and its citizens.
This is what may be described as the Vision’s doctrine, which runs far deeper than any arms deal or military alliance. Since then, the Kingdom has launched defense initiatives that amounted to a genuine break from historical models of dependency. The Saudi Arabian Military Industries company now aims to localize fifty percent of defense spending by 2030, after it had not exceeded 8 percent before the Vision was launched. Likewise, partnerships with major defense institutions shifted from mere delivery contracts to agreements requiring the transfer of technology and expertise, as well as the capacity building and sustainable industry.
On the diplomatic front, the 2023 agreement improved Saudi-Iranian relations, reduced escalation, and introduced understandings that undoubtedly redrew the map of regional expectations, proving that the Kingdom is capable of crafting settlements instead of waiting for others to impose them.
Today, the Kingdom has more leverage than ever before. It has the largest economy in the region, it is home to the largest oil reserves, and it has demonstrated its ability to engage in balanced dialogue with both Tehran and Washington without losing credibility, thanks to the clarity with which it addresses all issues through diplomatic tools previously new to the region.
In light of current conditions, it is impossible to imagine any solution to the accumulated chaos in the region without comprehensive regional treaties with Riyadh at the center, reordering and repositioning to safeguard the common interests of the region’s states and redefines the role of each party in a manner that reflects real balances of power.
What distinguishes the present moment is that the principle of respect for sovereignty is no longer merely defensive rhetoric. It has become a cornerstone of the new international currently taking shape, and it is no secret that Riyadh plays a major role in promoting development projects around the world, from infrastructure initiatives in Africa and Central Asia to projects in several Arab countries, through an extraordinary model that is not grounded in tutelage or interference in domestic affairs.
Today, Gulf security is a shared responsibility among all the states concerned, while coordination cannot and should be identical across every political issue, for this has proven unattainable. Instead, what is needed are practical alliances based on clear and common objectives: shared maritime security in waterways including the Strait of Hormuz, the exchange of early warning data, joint mine-clearing exercises, and economic integration that grants all parties, including Iran, an economic interest ensuring the continued security of maritime routes.
Despite its unprecedented difficulties, this crisis has given the Kingdom the ability to project itself as the pivotal player of the region. This is not solely about military capabilities, though its military ranks among the strongest; it is also underpinned by the infrastructure it has invested for decades. This was magnified many times over through the ambitious projects of Vision 2030, which transformed logistics systems into capital – a strategy now bearing fruit during this crisis, as seen with Jeddah Islamic Port, which has become a regional hub competing with the region’s largest ports. Riyadh’s logistical ambitions also extend to linking East and West through land and maritime corridors that would make the Kingdom an unavoidable point of transit.
With regard to oil policy, Saudi Arabia demonstrated, through management of OPEC+ during years of sharp fluctuations in global oil markets, an unprecedented knack for negotiating and strategizing. It went from merely overseeing production to managing international expectations through foresight regarding supply and demand strategies at sensitive moments. In truth, this Saudi policy of uniting oil reserves, advanced competitive ports, logistical corridors, and market-management strategies has given Riyadh unrivaled leverage as the region is rebuilt.
The war will inevitably subside and reconstruction and economic integration will follow. At that point, Saudi Arabia – with its weight, symbolism, and wisdom – will be in pole position to exercise effective leadership in the Middle East. Indeed, it did not wait for the storm to end; rather, it continued advancing its development project in the midst and height of the crisis, without forgetting to extend a helping hand to neighbors during some of the darkest moments in the history of the Middle East.
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